On July 21, 2025, China released trade data showing a dramatic collapse in exports of two critical minerals: antimony and germanium. Between January and June 2025, exports of Germanium dropped by 95%, while antimony fell 88%. These figures reflect the impact of intensified crackdowns on illegal exports, smuggling networks, and violations of export controls. Both minerals had previously been added to China’s restricted list in 2023 and 2024, and by December 2024, exports to the United States were effectively banned. The crackdown forms part of China’s broader strategy to assert control over strategic minerals amid escalating trade and tech tensions.
In contrast to this contraction, China’s rare earth magnet exports to the United States soared in June 2025, jumping 660% from the previous month to over 350 metric tons. This rebounds, also reported on July 21, followed a temporary easing of bureaucratic blockages linked to export licensing. Despite the spike, export volumes remain 38% below June 2024 levels, suggesting that this rebound was likely a one-time release of delayed shipments rather than a full reopening of trade. Overall, China’s total rare earth magnet exports rose to just over 3,100 metric tons, which still marks a substantial decline from early 2025 averages.
These export dynamics are crucial to understanding the evolving landscape of critical minerals and global supply security. Germanium and antimony are vital to defense systems, electronics, solar panels, and semiconductors—industries where substitution is difficult and alternative suppliers are scarce. The resulting price spikes—germanium more than doubling and antimony nearly quadrupling—highlight how market volatility can be triggered by policy shifts in a single country. Meanwhile, the selective loosening of rare earth magnet flows shows a calculated Chinese approach: restrict where leverage is highest and release where strategic relationships may benefit. For Western countries, especially the U.S., these developments underscore the urgent need to diversify supply chains, invest in domestic refining, and build long-term resilience—both for economic competitiveness and to preserve the social license to operate in sensitive sectors dependent on these minerals.