On August 14, Zambia’s mining ministry released second-quarter data showing a decline in copper production compared to the same period in 2024. The report cited lower ore grades and operational challenges at several large mines, including those in the Copperbelt and the newer North-Western Province. While overall H1 2025 output still reached approximately 440,000 tonnes, the downward trend in Q2 has raised concerns over the country’s ability to meet its ambitious production targets, set above one million tonnes annually in the medium term.
Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the DRC, has been pursuing aggressive strategies to attract investment and stabilize production. Recent policy reforms, including adjustments to royalties and incentives for exploration, were designed to draw in new capital. Yet the latest results reveal the structural difficulties of maintaining growth, with aging operations facing declining grades and newer projects still ramping up more slowly than anticipated. This situation leaves Zambia more exposed to short-term fluctuations, even as global copper prices remain relatively favorable.
The production dip highlights the delicate balance between policy ambition and operational realities in Africa’s mining sector. For Zambia, underperformance risks undermining investor confidence and delaying infrastructure and social programs funded by mining revenues. From a broader perspective, it underscores how supply-side fragility in key producers can tighten the global copper market and amplify volatility. While not a direct matter of social license, the ability of the state and companies to deliver on promises of growth and benefits will ultimately shape public perceptions of mining’s legitimacy in Zambia’s development path.
Country/Context Profile – Zambia
Key Commodity: Copper (world’s second-largest producer in Africa)
H1 2025 Output: ~440,000 tonnes
Current Challenge: Lower ore grades and operational constraints
Policy Direction: Target >1Mt copper annually with new investment incentives
Global Role: Significant player in copper supply for energy transition