The Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) cobalt export ban, in place since February and extended in June, continued to weigh heavily on global supply chains in July 2025. China’s imports of cobalt intermediates fell to 4,143 tons (metal content) in July, down 27% from June and a steep 72% year-on-year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC). The decline underscores DRC’s outsized role in the cobalt supply chain, as the country produces more than two-thirds of global cobalt. Spot cobalt hydroxide prices have climbed in response, rising from US$11.75–12.20/lb in June to US$13.10–13.30/lb in August.
Despite the sharp decline, the figures were “less bad” than many traders expected, suggesting that inventories in bonded warehouses and long-term contracts are still feeding some supply into China. This dynamic has tempered fears of an immediate shortage, even as low-priced cobalt products become increasingly scarce. Market participants note that downstream smelters have been cautious, holding back on procurement amid weak activity and subdued sentiment, leaving the domestic market relatively flat despite the restrictions.
Meanwhile, China’s cobalt metal exports held steady in July, rising slightly to 978 tons, a 5% increase from June and 50% higher year-on-year. The Netherlands remained the top destination, absorbing 629 tons, while European demand overall remained sluggish due to high inventories and weak margins. The mixed picture—falling imports of intermediates but stable exports of refined metal—highlights how the cobalt market is being reshaped by the DRC’s policies: tightening supply at the source while downstream markets remain oversupplied and cautious.