Policy Shift on Cobalt Exports
On September 21, 2025, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced that the current ban on cobalt exports will be replaced by a quota system, effective October 16. The measure represents recalibration rather than reversal: while authorities had previously imposed a blanket ban to encourage local processing, the new framework introduces controlled export allowances aimed at balancing domestic industrial policy with global market realities.
Balancing Local Value and Global Demand
The DRC produces more than 70% of the world’s cobalt, making its export policies highly consequential for electric-vehicle supply chains. By shifting to quotas, the government hopes to maintain pressure on companies to invest in local refining while avoiding severe disruptions to global supply. Officials argue that the quota system will give domestic plants time to scale up capacity, while still ensuring that international buyers, particularly in China and Europe, have access to critical volumes in the short term.
Implications for Market Stability
The announcement immediately drew attention from automakers, battery manufacturers, and commodity traders, who have been closely monitoring DRC’s policy moves. Analysts warn that quota allocation could become politicized, creating risks of favoritism or opacity in licensing. If managed transparently, the system could stabilize global cobalt flows and encourage longer-term investment in Congolese refining. If mismanaged, however, it could fuel uncertainty and price volatility, undercutting the very goal of making the DRC a reliable cornerstone of the global energy transition.