Title: Combined Risk Assessment of Multiple Tailings Dams
Author/Institution: Nursen Ataman – PhD Thesis, Middle East Technical University
Publication Year: 2025
Innovations in Risk Modeling
Ataman’s research develops an integrated probabilistic framework to assess the cumulative failure risk of tailings storage facilities (TSFs). In light of disasters such as those in Zambia and Brazil, the thesis demonstrates that analyzing dams in isolation underestimates system-wide risks to communities and ecosystems. The proposed model links engineering performance with social and environmental vulnerability indices, representing a major advance in risk-informed governance.
Methodology and Application
Using geospatial modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, Ataman’s framework quantifies interdependent failure probabilities across multiple dams in a watershed. The model integrates hydrological, seismic, and human factors, producing a multi-hazard vulnerability map that can inform regulators and communities.
Governance and Policy Impact
The research offers a new paradigm for tailings governance, emphasizing the need for transparent data sharing and community participation in risk evaluation. Its relevance extends beyond engineering to the realm of social license and accountability, as communities increasingly demand proof of safety and preparedness.