Policy Shift and Export Framework
Between October 1 and 3, 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) announced the lifting of its temporary cobalt export ban, effective October 16, replacing it with a quota-based export system aimed at tightening regulatory control and increasing fiscal revenues. The new framework, set to govern exports for 2026–2027, establishes a ceiling of 96,600 metric tons per year for cobalt concentrate and hydroxide shipments. The Ministry of Mines confirmed that the policy seeks to stabilize domestic processing capacity, prevent unreported exports, and ensure that global buyers comply with formal export channels under the national certification regime.
Market Implications and Strategic Context
As the world’s largest cobalt producer, accounting for over 70% of global supply, the DRC’s decision immediately impacted market sentiment, with benchmark cobalt prices rising amid expectations of tighter supply through 2026. Analysts suggest that the quota system will initially reduce export volumes compared to 2024 levels, when shipments exceeded 110,000 tons, thereby constraining feedstock availability for battery manufacturers in China, South Korea, and the European Union. The move aligns with President Félix Tshisekedi’s strategy to increase in-country value addition through refinery investments and joint ventures with foreign partners. The quota allocation process will reportedly prioritize companies that demonstrate compliance with traceability, tax, and labor standards, signaling a broader effort to formalize and professionalize the sector.
Global Supply Chain and Investment Outlook
The transition from an outright ban to a controlled quota regime underscores the DRC’s intent to balance domestic beneficiation goals with the need to maintain export revenue stability. Industry observers note that the policy could accelerate investment in local hydrometallurgical plants and regional refining capacity, particularly in partnership with China and the United Arab Emirates. However, traders and end-users warn that supply tightness could persist into late 2026, potentially driving up battery-grade cobalt prices and intensifying competition for long-term offtake contracts. In the broader context of the energy transition, the DRC’s regulatory recalibration reinforces its central role—and strategic leverage—within the global electric vehicle and critical minerals supply chain.