Market Context and Price Movement
On October 3, 2025, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed to approximately US$ 37,500 per ton, marking their highest level since mid- 2022, after Indonesia intensified its nationwide crackdown on illegal tin mining. The enforcement measures, led by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and the National Police, have sharply reduced supply from informal producers across Bangka Belitung and West Kalimantan, the country’s main tin-producing regions. The suspension of unlicensed operations and stricter export controls have constrained shipments from the world’s largest refined tin exporter, sending ripples through global electronics and solder manufacturing supply chains.
Regulatory Action and Production Impact
Authorities reported the closure of more than 200 illegal mining sites in September alone, alongside the seizure of smelting equipment and vessels used for illicit dredging. The government aims to restore environmental compliance and curb losses from unreported exports estimated at US$ 500 million annually. While state-owned PT Timah and other licensed operators continue production under tighter oversight, output has fallen short of expectations as environmental audits delay permitting renewals. The move underscores Jakarta’s determination to align tin production with its broader resource governance and formalization agenda, echoing similar efforts across nickel and bauxite sectors to increase traceability and domestic beneficiation.
Global Supply Chain and Policy Implications
The Indonesian crackdown has heightened concerns among electronics, automotive, and semiconductor manufacturers, which rely heavily on tin for soldering and circuit assembly. Analysts predict that continued enforcement could keep prices elevated through early 2026, especially as global inventories remain depleted and few alternative suppliers can compensate for Indonesia’s shortfall. The policy also reflects the government’s dual objective of curbing illegal mining while positioning Indonesia as a reliable, ESG- compliant supplier of critical minerals. Industry observers note that the resulting price volatility reinforces tin’s strategic importance in clean technology manufacturing and may accelerate investments in recycling and secondary sourcing to mitigate future supply disruptions.