In early August 2025, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that negotiations with China regarding access to rare earth minerals and magnets have reached the halfway mark. He emphasized that the goal is to restore the pre‐restriction flow of magnets and associated components from China to the United States and its supply chain. While progress has been made, substantial technical issues remain under discussion, and the final extension of a tariff truce—currently set to expire on August 12—has yet to be confirmed.
Recent shipment data shows some recovery: rare earth deliveries to the U.S. rose in June but remain far below historical levels. Meanwhile, costs for critical materials like samarium and neodymium—used in aerospace and defense—have surged for U.S. contractors. China still dominates the global rare earth processing industry, controlling over 90% of the market. In response, the U.S. Department of Defense has stepped in with significant investments—such as a $400 million stake in MP Materials—to boost domestic magnet production, which may ease long-term reliance on China once operational.
This development is more than a trade complication—it highlights how China’s mineral control has become a core element of geopolitical leverage. Rebuilding resilient and diversified supply chains will require more than temporary trade truces—it demands accelerated investment in domestic capacities and foreign partnerships. Moreover, as the U.S. pursues new critical mineral developments, gaining social license to operate is essential. This means ensuring projects are environmentally responsible, community‐oriented, and transparent. Success in negotiations and investment must be matched by credible governance and public trust, especially given the extended timelines needed to build viable alternatives to China’s dominance.