Title: The Cabo Delgado Conflict and the Future of Natural Gas in Mozambique
Author/Institution: Adriano Nuvunga & Joseph Hanlon – Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD)
/ Open University
Publication Year: 2022
Adriano Nuvunga and Joseph Hanlon’s 2022 study analyzes the intersection of insurgency, extractive industries, and governance in northern Mozambique. The authors argue that the discovery of massive offshore gas reserves in Cabo Delgado heightened local expectations of development but also deepened grievances over exclusion, corruption, and displacement. Weak state capacity and opaque management of resource revenues created fertile ground for violent insurgent groups, who exploited community discontent to recruit fighters and destabilize the region.
The research emphasizes how extractive projects, when poorly managed, can become conflict accelerators rather than engines of development. Communities that lose access to land and livelihoods without receiving tangible benefits are more likely to view resource projects as threats. At the same time, the Mozambican state’s reliance on militarized responses rather than inclusive governance has exacerbated mistrust and insecurity. The authors conclude that achieving peace and stability around gas projects requires transparent revenue management, equitable benefit-sharing, and stronger protection for displaced communities.
These insights are directly relevant to current developments in Cabo Delgado, where, as reported in early September 2025, insurgent attacks displaced 59,000 people and threatened the restart of a US $20 billion LNG project. The study underscores that such disruptions are not merely security problems, but governance failures tied to how resource projects engage—or exclude—local populations. For Mozambique’s LNG sector to recover and sustain its license to operate, it must address community grievances at the root, ensuring that gas revenues translate into visible development outcomes rather than deepening inequality.