A $20 Billion Gamble in Cabo Delgado
The Mozambique LNG project, led by TotalEnergies, represents one of Africa’s largest energy investments—valued at roughly $20 billion. After being suspended in 2021 following violent attacks near Palma, the consortium lifted force majeure in late October 2025, clearing the way for construction to resume. Costs have since risen by more than $4.5 billion, underscoring both inflationary pressures and the scale of the logistical and security challenges in Mozambique’s volatile Cabo Delgado province.
Communities Caught Between Growth and Instability
While the project promises thousands of jobs and billions in state revenue, it remains deeply contested by local and civil-society groups who question whether promised benefits will reach affected communities. Residents near Afungi and Palma cite unresolved issues around resettlement, livelihoods, and compensation, while NGOs warn that heavy military presence and limited transparency risk deepening tensions. The social licence to operate hinges on how effectively TotalEnergies and the government balance national development goals with the protection of human rights and local autonomy.
Testing the Boundaries of Responsible Energy Development
The return of Mozambique LNG is both an economic opportunity and a governance test. If the restart proceeds without meaningful engagement and safeguards, it could inflame grievances and reinforce the perception that extractive megaprojects enrich elites at the expense of local populations. Conversely, a transparent and rights-based implementation could restore confidence and set a precedent for inclusive resource governance in post-conflict regions. For now, the project stands as a litmus test of how global energy ambition intersects with local justice in one of Africa’s most fragile frontiers.